Skip to main content

FRAMES logo
Resource Catalog

Document

Type: Conference Paper
Author(s): Carol L. Miller; Brett H. Davis; Anne E. Black
Publication Date: 2003

We developed a GIS model, BurnPro, to estimate the probability of burning over a landscape. BurnPro estimates the annual probability of burning across the landscape from information on ignitions, rate of spread through fuels, historical weather, topography, and length of the fire season. We used BurnPro to help assess the feasibility of wildland fire use (WFU) for managing fuels and restoring historical fire regimes in 6 wilderness areas and national parks across the United States. Model results were combined with information on the social and ecological risks of fire to help delineate zones within each of the 6 study areas where WFU could be realistically considered. For these WFU zones, we used the probability of burning generated by BurnPro to derive expected fire return intervals and compared these with the fire history for each of the 6 study areas. From this analysis, we have identified where additional ignitions may be needed to restore historical fire frequencies. This information will be used to help managers develop effective fire management plans.

Online Links
Link to this document (1.4 MB; pdf)
Citation: Miller, C., B. Davis, and A. E. Black. 2003. Using the probability of burning to plan for wildland fire use, Second International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress and Fifth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL [program volume and electronic resource]. American Meteorological Society,Boston, MA. p. 121-122, http://ams.confex.com/ams/FI.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Administration    Economics    Fire Behavior    Fire Ecology    Fire History    Fire Occurrence    Fuels    Mapping    Models    Planning    Restoration and Rehabilitation    Weather
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • burning intervals
  • computer programs
  • fire frequency
  • fire management
  • fire regimes
  • fuel management
  • GIS
  • histories
  • ignition
  • JFSP - Joint Fire Science Program
  • land use
  • landscape ecology
  • national parks
  • rate of spread
  • season of fire
  • statistical analysis
  • topography
  • wilderness areas
  • wilderness fire management
  • wildfires
Tall Timbers Record Number: 16358 • Location Status: In-file • Abstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 41449

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by Tall Timbers and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of Tall Timbers.