Document


Title

Current procedures and practices in spot fire-weather forecasting: Report #1 to Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station
Document Type: Book
Author(s): B. G. Brown; A. H. Murphy
Publication Year: 1984

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • fire danger rating
  • fire management
  • ignition
  • Montana
  • Oregon
  • precipitation
  • statistical analysis
  • Washington
  • weather observations
  • wind
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 39176
Tall Timbers Record Number: 13811
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Fire File DDW
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.

Description

Discussions with fire-weather forecasters and their responses to the questionnaire revealed that SFWF's for prescribed burns typically include forecasts for the planned ignition time and three twelve-hour periods as well as a long-range outlook, and that SFWF's are usually provided within an hour after they are requested. The forecasters generally felt that wind speed and thunderstorm occurrence are the most important forecast elements for prescribed burns, although the relative importance of the elements varies from burn to burn. The fire-weather forecasters indicated that the most important information sources for the formulation of SFWF's include topographic maps, recent NWS surface observations, and numerical weather prediction products. Some of the forecasters are usually aware of the prescription for the relevant burn and more than one-half of them felt that they could provide more useful SFWF's with that knowledge. The fire-weather forecasters typically use intervals of values or word modifiers to express the uncertainty in their SFWS's. Probability values are used by some forecasters for forecasts of precipitation ocurrence. Verifying observations are only sporadically provided to most of the foreasters. They generally agreed that the quality of their SFWF's could be improved if verification data were more regularly available.

Citation:
Brown, B. G., and A. H. Murphy. 1984. Current procedures and practices in spot fire-weather forecasting: Report #1 to Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. Statistics and Climatic Impacts Laboratory (SCIL) 84 - 1 (USDA - FS - RMFRES 28 - K3 - 302. Corvallis, OR, Oregon State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences.