Stochastic fire-front forecasting from reconnaissance-based estimates of rate-of-fire spread
Document Type: Conference Paper
Author(s): W. G. O'Regan; S. Nozaki; N. E. Savin
Editor(s): J. S. Meadows
Publication Year: 1975

Cataloging Information

  • computer programs
  • fire management
  • fire protection
  • fire size
  • fuel appraisal
  • photography
  • rate of spread
  • remote sensing
  • southern California
  • weather observations
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: August 5, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 35555
Tall Timbers Record Number: 9856
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Fire File DDW
TTRS Abstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


A new method to produce probability forecast about behavior of an on-going forest fire is proposed. Data used consist of telemetered infrared photographs of the on-goinq fire; terrain and fuel measurements; past and current weather data; and weather forecasts. Startup procedures based on Rothermel's model and quadratic programming are used to obtain measurements or directional rates of spread from successive photographs. Response surface tecnniques are used to formulate prediction equations from data on fire environment. Dynamic programming (Dijkstra algorithm) and predicted directional rates of spread are used to obtaln fire size and configuration from a point process analog of the fire phenomenon. Monte-Carlo procedures are used to obtain probability limits to forecasted arrival times of a given set of points. ┬ęSociety of American Foresters. Abstract reproduced by permission.

Online Link(s):
O'Regan, W. G., S. Nozaki, and N. E. Savin. 1975. Stochastic fire-front forecasting from reconnaissance-based estimates of rate-of-fire spread, in Meadows, J. S. and others, Systems Analysis and Forest Resource Management, Proceedings, Workshop Systems Analysis Work Group, Society of American Foresters. Athens, GA. Society of American Foresters,Bethesda, MD. p. 313-326,