The effect of potential.
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): R. D. Routledge
Publication Year: 1980

Cataloging Information

  • catastrophic fires
  • coniferous forests
  • deciduous forests
  • forest management
  • logging
  • mortality
  • plant growth
  • salvage
  • stand characteristics
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 35526
Tall Timbers Record Number: 9827
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Fire File DDW
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


Because standard methods for computing the optimal rotation age of a forest stand assume complete knowledge of the stand value at any future time, a forest manager must treat his estimates of future value as if they were completely accurate. Minor, unpredictable fluctuations from year to year are assumed to somehow cancel each other out. Potential catastrophies, such as forest fires or insect plagues, are customarily ignored. An alternate method for dealing with uncertainty is presented here. This method can incorporate estimates of the likelihood of catastrophies. It is shown that catastrophy mortality has a potentially significant effect on the optimal rotation strategy, average profits, and land valuation. © Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD. Abstract reproduced by permission.

Online Link(s):
Routledge, R. D. 1980. The effect of potential. Forest Science, v. 26, no. 3, p. 389-399.