Verification of experimental probabilistic spot fire-weather forecasts
Document Type: Book
Author(s): B. G. Brown; A. H. Murphy
Publication Year: 1985

Cataloging Information

  • fire danger rating
  • humidity
  • Idaho
  • ignition
  • Montana
  • national forests
  • Oregon
  • statistical analysis
  • temperature
  • Washington
  • weather observations
  • wind
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: July 26, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 34726
Tall Timbers Record Number: 8994
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Fire File
TTRS Abstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


This report describes a study of the quality of - and uncertainty associated with - spot fire-weather forecasts prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. The study involved the formulation of experimental probabilistic spot forecasts at four NWS offices for prescribed burns in a selected set cf National Forests during the summer and fall of 1984. Experimental forecasts were prepared for four variables; namely, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and relative humidity. Verification data were recorded by Forest Service personnel at the burn site at the planned ignition time (the valid time of the forecast).

Brown, B. G., and A. H. Murphy. 1985. Verification of experimental probabilistic spot fire-weather forecasts. SCIL Report (Statistics and Climatic Impacts Laboratory) SCIL 85-2. Corvallis, OR, Oregon State University.