Development of a statistical validation methodology for fire weather indices
Document Type: Conference Proceedings
Author(s): Brian E. Potter; Scott L. Goodrick; Tim J. Brown
Publication Year: 2003

Cataloging Information

  • climatology
  • computer program
  • fire danger rating
  • fire frequency
  • fire growth
  • fire management
  • fire size
  • fire weather
  • GIS - geographic information system
  • humidity
  • JFSP - Joint Fire Science Program
  • statistical analysis
  • weather observations
  • wilderness fire management
  • wildfires
  • wind
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 2874
Tall Timbers Record Number: 16519
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


Fire managers and forecasters must have tools, such as fire indices, to summarize large amounts of complex information. These tools allow them to identify and plan for periods of elevated risk and/or wildfire potential. This need was once met using simple measures like relative humidity or maximum daily temperature (e.g., Gisborne, 1936) to describe fire weather, and with increasing decision-support requirements over time, eventually led to more complex systems like the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). When there was no readily available index for some fire or fire-weather characteristic, managers and forecasters borrowed what they could find from related fields. For example, the K-Index and Lifted Index, designed for prediction of severe weather linked to thunderstorms, were used to indicate stability before the development of the Haines Index. High values of these non-fire indices resulted from high moisture as well as high instability, and as such were not ideal for fire weather forecasting.

Online Link(s):
Potter, Brian E.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Brown, Timothy J. 2003. Development of a statistical validation methodology for fire weather indices. Proceedings of the 2nd International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress and the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. Nov 16, 2003. American Meteorological Society.