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Type: Conference Proceedings
Author(s): Gary L. Achtemeier; Ned Nikolov
Editor(s): Dale D. Wade
Compiler(s): Mikel L. Robinson
Publication Date: 2015

Most of climate change is understood in terms of global-scale warming caused by carbon dioxide released from anthropogenic combustion of fossil fuels. Climate models predict slow but steady warming over the next five to ten decades. Developing fire and smoke management strategies under conditions of continuous climate change may be difficult as weather continually adjusts to changing climate. Thus long-term climate change by CO2 warming may present a “moving target” for decision-making by land managers. On the other hand, “climate surge” events followed by long periods with little to no change can produce initial large changes in weather that afterward remain relatively unchanged. Conceptually, it is easier to develop land management strategies to adapt to these “fixed target” conditions. Evidence is presented to support an argument that most of recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere is the outcome of a natural “climate surge.” There have been no significant global temperature changes over the past 14 years. Thus land management strategies can be based on current climate – a new normal.

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Link to this document (9.3 MB; pdf)
Citation: Achtemeier, Gary L.; Nikolov, Ned. 2015. Managing for fire and smoke in a changing climate: is it a moving or a fixed target? Pages 1-12. In: Wade, Dale D. (editor), Robinson, Mikel L. (compiler). Proceedings of the International Smoke Symposium, October 21-24, 2013, Hyattsville, MD. Missoula, MT: International Association of Wildland Fire.

Cataloging Information

Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    International    National
  • arctic warming
  • climate change
  • fire management
  • smoke management
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Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (
FRAMES Record Number: 25016