Alaska’s fire managers are well aware that most boreal burning occurs during relatively brief periods of high fire activity. This was well-illustrated in the 2015 fire season (below). There is also evidence to suggest that fires may be more severe (Barrett and Kasischke 2013) and resistant to control during these periods. Scientists and managers both seek better understanding of why and when these periods are likely to occur. Fire protection agencies would like to have longer-term seasonal fire activity predictions for preparedness and strategy decisions while land managers and scientists want to inform models of long-term ecosystem response to changes in climate and/or vegetation succession and repeat disturbance.