Document


Title

Modelling the rate of fire spread and uncertainty associated with the onset and propagation of crown fires in conifer forest stands
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander
Publication Year: 2017

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • Australia
  • crown fire
  • crowning
  • deterministic model
  • ensemble methods
  • fire spread
  • Monte Carlo simulations
  • Pinus radiata
  • radiata pine
Region(s):
  • International
Partner Site(s):
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: October 13, 2020
FRAMES Record Number: 23755

Description

Crown fires are complex, unstable phenomena dependent on feedback mechanisms between the combustion products of distinct fuel layers. We describe non-linear fire behaviour associated with crowning and the uncertainty they cause in fire behaviour predictions by running a semiphysical modelling system within a simple Monte Carlo simulation framework. The method was able to capture the dynamics of passive and active crown fire spread regimes, providing estimates of average rate of spread and the extent of crown fire activity. System outputs were evaluated against data collected from a wildfire that occurred in a radiata pine plantation in south-eastern Australia. The Monte Carlo method reduced prediction errors relative to the more commonly used deterministic modelling approach, and allowed a more complete description of the level of crown fire behaviour to expect. The method also provides uncertainty measures and probabilistic outputs, extending the range of questions that can be answered by fire behaviour models.

Online Link(s):
Citation:
Cruz, Miguel G.; Alexander, Martin E. 2017. Modelling the rate of fire spread and uncertainty associated with the onset and propagation of crown fires in conifer forest stands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26(5):413-426.