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Document

Type: Report
Author(s): John D. Horel; Tim J. Brown
Publication Date: 2015

Software was developed to evaluate National Weather Service (NWS) spot forecasts. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from the NWS to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well as wildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. A multi-year set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed were compared to nearby surface observations as well as gridded values from the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Based on spot forecasts nationwide, their skill is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature (8-10% improvement) and less so for maximum wind speed (2% improvement). Verification using nearby soundings of mixing height, transport wind and Haines Index forecasts indicated that mixing height forecasts exhibited larger errors and tended to be biased towards overforecasting compared to forecasts of transport wind speeds and Haines Index values.

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Link to this document (605 KB; pdf)
Citation: Horel, John D.; Brown, Tim J. 2015. Verification of spot fire weather forecasts - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program. JFSP Project No. 12-1-05-3. Salt Lake City, UT: University of Utah. 8 p.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • forecasting
  • NDFD - National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database
JFSP Project Number(s):
  • 12-1-05-3
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 21108