Document


Title

Modeling fire growth potential by emphasizing significant growth events: characterizing a climatology of fire growth days in Alaska's boreal forest
Document Type: Conference Proceedings
Author(s): Robert Ziel; Jane M. Wolken; Tom St. Clair; Marsha Henderson
Publication Year: 2015

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • boreal forest
  • BUI - CFFDRS Buildup Index
  • CFFDRS - Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System
  • FFMC - CFFDRS Fine Fuel Moisture Code
  • fire growth
  • fire growth modeling
  • MODIS - Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
Region(s):
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: March 22, 2019
FRAMES Record Number: 20342

Description

Current and future risks posed by wildfires are key elements in decisions about management of those fires. Carrying evaluations of that risk more than a few days into the future requires stochastic approaches that depend on the climatology of environmental conditions that favor or deter wildfire growth. Tools like the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) simulator, and the Rare Event Risk Assessment Process (RERAP) before it, apply climatology in this way. This analysis identifies key environmental factors using spatial and temporal distributions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detections. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and Buildup Index (BUI) from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) define the critical climatology of conditions favorable for significant fire growth in Alaska's Boreal Interior. These conditions are used to inform the stochastic analyses and demonstrate the potential for effective and useful results.

Citation:
Ziel, Robert; Wolken, Jane; St. Clair, Thomas; Henderson, Marsha. 2015. Modeling fire growth potential by emphasizing significant growth events: characterizing a climatology of fire growth days in Alaska's boreal forest. 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. American Meteorological Society. 12 p.