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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Loya Wendy; Anna Springsteen; Jennifer L. Barnes; T. Scott Rupp
Publication Date: 2011

The arctic and boreal ecosystems that dominate Alaska's landscape are undergoing changes in response to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes (Hinzman et al. 2005). Alaska has seen a warming trend over the past several decades, with an average increase in mean annual temperature of 3.4ºF/1.9ºC since 1950, and lengthening of the growing season (Karl et al. 2009). Some of this temperature increase is correlated to a 1976 phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Shulski and Wendler 2007), and General Circulation Models (GCMs) attribute additional warming to the increase in greenhouse gases (IPCC 2007). Since climate is a major driver for many ecological and biophysical processes, climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on fire-adapted northern ecosystems (Duffy et al. 2005). Fire in the boreal forests of Alaska already appears to be increasing in frequency, size and severity (Kasischke et al. 2010). Climate change presents a significant challenge to managing our natural and cultural resources. Ecological models that project effects of climate change on plants, animals, and other system components can be used by managers to understand how these effects will impact park resources. For example, the Boreal ALFRESCO model provides a tool to simulate future fire regimes and changes to vegetation under different climate scenarios. We utilized this model and future climate predictions from several GCMs to explore the potential changes in fire regime and vegetation composition for three parks. The interior Alaska parks selected have significant acreages of boreal forest: Denali National Park and Preserve, Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve.

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Link to this document (418 KB; pdf)
Citation: Loya, Wendy; Springsteen, Anna L.; Barnes, Jennifer L.; Rupp, Scott. 2011. Projected vegetation and fire regime response to future climate change in national parks in interior Alaska. Alaska Park Science 10(1):22-25.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Keywords:
  • acres burned
  • ALFRESCO
  • climate change
  • fire regime
  • fire return interval
  • vegetation response
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 17267