Resource Catalog
Document
Type: Report
Publication Date: 1987
A method is proposed for predicting a probabilistic distribution of fire behavior. A fire model gives conditional distributions of the physical fire site parameters one would observe for given fire states. The probabilistic prediction is provided by Bayes formula and knowledge of the prior distribution of fire states at specific sites. Thus, the fire model is independent of the site location. The techniques of plotting Receiver Operating Characteristics are demonstrated with examples to optimize and test the fire model's performance.
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Citation: Wilson, Ralph A. 1987. A theoretical basis for modeling probability distributions of fire behavior. Research Paper INT-RP-382. Ogden, UT: USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. 11 p.
Cataloging Information
Topics:
Keywords:
- Bayesian
- decision theory
- distribution
- extinction index
- fire behavior modeling
- marginal burning
Tall Timbers Record Number: 5109 • Location Status: In-file • Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 14145
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