Fire, an ever present threat in Australia, causes approximately 100 fatalities and over 3,000 injuries per annum. Significant resources are allocated to mitigate the threat. In this study we estimate the total cost of fire in Australia for 2005 at AUD$12,000 million or 1.3% of GDP. Breaking this total down into its components, we find 56% relates to costs in anticipation of fire, 29% for response activities and the remaining 15% stem from the consequences of fire. This estimate shows that the investment in mitigation (85% of the total costs), is over 5 times the consequences (15%) and raises the question as to whether the current investment strategy adopted in Australia is efficient and effective. As a first step in exploring the efficiency of the current system, a structured expert judgment exercise was undertaken. Twenty six experts responded, and the outcomes suggest that the current system is not optimal, and that there is no net benefit in increasing investment, however there may be a net benefit in reducing investment in anticipation and/or response.