Description

The Fire Spread Probability Simulator (FSPro) is a geospatial probabilistic model that predicts fire growth, and is designed to support long-term decision-making (more than 5 days). FSPro calculates two-dimensional fire growth and displays the probability that fire will visit each point (cell) on the landscape during the specified time; in the absence of suppression; and based on the current fire perimeter or ignition point. The purpose of this white paper is to provide guidance regarding FSPro inputs and documentation. The guidance follows a review of recent FSPro inputs and outputs to identify common issues that could lead to inaccurate outputs and unintended use of FSPro analyses in decisions. We identified several common analytical practices that appear inconsistent with methods recommended by the developing scientists that are incorporated in S-495 Geospatial Fire Analysis, Interpretation, and Application. It is difficult to quantify the effect of some inputs on the predicted fire probability output; however, we hope by addressing some of these issues, analyses will be more robust and accurate. For instances of appropriate deviations from standard practices we recommend documentation of rationale. We strive to update this paper as new information is published that will provide guidance for future analyses.