Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Mark A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; Michael C. Wimberly; Adam D. Baer; Mark A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; Jeff Eidenshink; Zhiliang Zhu
Publication Year: 2012

Cataloging Information

  • crown fires
  • FARSITE - Fire Area Simulator
  • fire case histories
  • fire extent
  • fire intensity
  • fire management
  • fire modeling
  • fire risk
  • fire size
  • fire spread
  • fire weather
  • forest management
  • fuel management
  • fuel moisture
  • Healthy Forests Restoration Act
  • rate of spread
  • spot fires
  • statistical analysis
  • surface fires
  • surface fuels
  • thinning
  • wildfires
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 11996
Tall Timbers Record Number: 27130
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Journals - I
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72,000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314,000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

Online Link(s):
Cochrane, Mark A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, Michael C.; Baer, Adam D.; Finney, Mark A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, Jeff; Zhu, Zhiliang. 2012. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(4):357-367.

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