Experimental Forecast of Area Burned for Interior Alaska
Version: no_data_entered
Funding Source(s):
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cataloging Information

  • area burned
  • fire prediction
  • fire season severity
  • fire weather forecasting
  • predictive model
  • seasonal forecasts
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: August 12, 2019
FRAMES Record Number: 10284


Atmospheric circulation patterns influence seasonal temperature and precipitation across large regions of Alaska. This experimental product uses to information to produce a forecast of area burned in Interior Alaska (i.e. South of the Brooks Range and North of the Alaska Range). By using the historical area burned data, historical teleconnection indices, and monthly temperature and precipitation indices for Interior Alaska, statistical models were constructed that forecast the area burned for the upcoming season based on the early season atmospheric circulation patterns. The temperature and precipitation data are assembled following the methods of Duffy et al. (2005) and are available from the National Weather Service Forecast Office. This product provides a forecast of the magnitude of the upcoming fire season for interior Alaska as a whole and gives an estimate of certainty associated with the forecast. It does not make predictions about the regions within Interior Alaska where fires will occur or about what time of the season fires will occur. The purpose of this experimental forecast is to provide managers with a forecast of the area burned in Interior Alaska for the upcoming fire season.

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