Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
A. Park Williams ; Craig D. Allen ; Alison K. Macalady ; Daniel Griffin ; Connie Woodhouse ; David M. Meko ; Thomas W. Swetnam ; Sara A. Rauscher ; Richard Seager ; Henri D. Grissino-Mayer ; Jeffrey S. Dean ; Edward R. Cook ; Chandana Gangodagamage ; Michael Cai ; Nate G. McDowell
As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000-2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.
Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Griffin, Daniel; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Meko, David M.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Seager, Richard; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Dean, Jeffrey S.; Cook, Edward R.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G. 2012. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Climate Change Published Online September 30, 2012, doi:10.1038/nclimate1693. 6 p.
Related Record(s) on FRAMES:
|Is referenced by:|
|Data:||Temperature as a Potent Driver of Forest Drought Stress and Tree Mortality|
climate change; drought stress; FDSI - forest drought stress index; temperature change; tree mortality
FRAMES Geographic Area(s):
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Updated:
Jan 18, 2013
FRAMES Record Number: